Taking the temperature – forecasting GDP growth for mainland China

We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, es-timated using a dynamic factor model. Our leading indicator is constructed from three se-ries: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index. These series are found to share a common, unobservable element from which our indicator can be identified. This indicator is then incorporated into out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts of Chinese GDP growth. Recursive out-of-sample accuracy tests indicate that the small-scale factor model approach leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting Chinese business conditions.forecasting; China; leading indicator; factor model; growth cycles

Enlargement and the European Geography of the Information Technology Sector

The information technology sector in Europe, comprising the production of computer hardware and software, is disproportionately located on the continent’s western periphery. The vast bulk of computers sold in Europe in the 1990s were assembled either in Ireland or Scotland, while Ireland also accounted for over 40 percent of all packaged software and 60 percent of all business software sold in Europe. As the sector in both these locations is largely foreign owned, the question arises as to whether EU enlargement might impact on the geography of the sector by diverting information technology FDI from the western to the new eastern periphery. This issue is explored in the present paper by analysis of five individual sub-segments: computer assembly and electronic components, R&D, mass market packaged software and the remainder of the software sector.

"A Dreadful Pressure for Money" : The Bank Charter Act 1844 and Bankers (Ireland) Act 1845 in the Context of the Great Irish Famine

The Bank Charter Act 1844, extended to Ireland via the Bankers (Ireland) Act 1845, established a highly restrictive monetary regime in Britain and Ireland, in which currency circulation was to be determined by a mechanistic rule-based approach rather than by bank discretion. This paper analyses the functioning of the Irish banking system during the Great Irish Famine (1845-1850) in the context of this rigid monetary regime, focusing in particular on the role of the government chartered bank, Bank of Ireland. The analysis is based on archival material from the Bank of Ireland Court of Directors, as well as quantitative data detailing note issue by Irish banks. This paper contends that while Bank of Ireland was focal point of the Irish banking system during the famine years, it perceived itself at this time primarily as a commercial bank operating within the prevailing monetary regime rather than as a central bank-type entity. Indeed, subsequent characterizations of Bank of Ireland as a “de facto” Irish central bank during the 1840s run the risk of overestimating the level of institutional agency possessed by Bank of Ireland within the wider monetary regime during the famine years

Drifting Together or Falling Apart? The Empirics of Regional Economic Growth in Post-Unification Germany

The objective of this paper is to address the question of convergence across German districts in the first decade after German unification by drawing out and emphasising some stylised facts of regional per capita income dynamics. We achieve this by employing non-parametric techniques which focus on the evolution of the entire cross-sectional income distribution. In particular, we follow a distributional approach to convergence based on kernel density estimation and implement a number of tests to establish the statistical significance of our findings. This paper finds that the relative income distribution appears to be stratifying into a trimodal/bimodal distribution.regional economic growth, Germany, convergence clubs, density estimation, modality tests

Economic Growth across Space and Time: subprovincial Evidence from Mainland China

We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, estimated using a dynamic factor model. Our leading indicator is constructed from three series: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index. These series are found to share a common, unobservable element from which our indicator can be identified. This indicator is then incorporated into out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts of Chinese GDP growth. Recursive out-of-sample accuracy tests indicate that the small scale factor model approach leads to successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting Chinese business conditions.Regional Economic Growth, China

Strategic transformations in large Irish-owned businesses

This research explores resistance to a universal business organisation by analysing large firms in Ireland. Drawing on our dataset of large Irish firms, an SSOP informed study identifies strategic transformations such as increased internationalisation and changes in ownership regime across three benchmark years of 1978, 1990 and 2010. However large Irish firms are not characterised by convergence to a universal business organisation. This study contributes to the SSOP project by extending it to a new geographic context and, by including sector of activity, by providing a contextually sensitive explanation for the absence of a universally applicable business organisation

Social Network Analysis of the Irish Biotech Industry: Implications for Digital Ecosystems (NIRSA) Working Paper Series No. 55.

This paper presents an analysis of the socio-spatial structures of innovation, collaboration and knowledge flow among SMEs in the Irish biotech sector. The study applies social network analysis to determine the structure of networks of company directors and inventors in the biotech sector. In addition, the article discusses the implications of the findings for the role and contours of a biotech digital ecosystem. To distil these lessons, the research team organised a seminar which was attended by representatives of biotech actors and experts

Investigating agglomeration economies in a panel of European cities and regions

This paper investigates agglomeration economies in an annual panel of NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 city regions across France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain and the UK over 1980-2006 and comparing three sub-samples to see if the effects have changed over time. We uncover evidence of long run agglomeration effects of around 6% for NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 city regions for the full sample. The underlying pattern that this data reflects is changing sectoral composition in which manufacturing was declining, to be largely replaced by services; then more recently a period of city-based economic growth with the financial and business services-led boom at its heart

Sectoral Trends and British Regional Economic Growth – A Spatial Econometric Perspective

This paper aims to look beneath the surface of British sub-regional aggregate GVA growth over the period 1995-2004, by examining how the differing growth dynamics of the secondary and services sectors have influenced the overall regional growth process. A spatial econometric analysis is undertaken which tests regional secondary, services and aggregate real GVA per capita for absolute and conditional convergence at the NUTS 3 level as well as on a set of functional economic areas, constructed using NUTS 3 level commuter flow data. A number of explanatory factors influencing secondary, services, and aggregate regional economic growth are also identified

Sectoral Trends and British Regional Economic Growth – A Spatial Econometric Perspective

This paper aims to look beneath the surface of British sub-regional aggregate GVA growth over the period 1995-2004, by examining how the differing growth dynamics of the secondary and services sectors have influenced the overall regional growth process. A spatial econometric analysis is undertaken which tests regional secondary, services and aggregate real GVA per capita for absolute and conditional convergence at the NUTS 3 level as well as on a set of functional economic areas, constructed using NUTS 3 level commuter flow data. A number of explanatory factors influencing secondary, services, and aggregate regional economic growth are also identified